Pipeline targets by source for 2027: how much should marketing, SDRs, sales and partners each create?
Set 2027 pipeline targets by source in four steps: split the bookings target across marketing, SDR outbound, sales and partners; divide each source’s bookings by that source’s own win rate to get its pipeline target; turn pipeline into opportunities by quarter; and over-allocate any source that is new or unproven. There is no universal mix. Dave Kellogg’s example for a roughly $50M enterprise SaaS company was 60% marketing, 10% SDR, 20% partners and 10% sales, each plus or minus 10 points, and he recommends setting the targets as numbers of opportunities, not percentages.
Key takeaways
What are the four sources of pipeline?
Kellogg defines four sources. Marketing (inbound): opportunities created when people respond to marketing programs. SDR outbound: opportunities SDRs generate through their own outreach, not the inbound leads they only process. Partners or alliances: opportunities partners bring, such as a systems integrator bringing you into a deal. Sales outbound: opportunities quota-carrying reps find themselves, usually in named-account territories. Product-led companies can add a fifth source, product.
Pipeline by source is the value of qualified opportunities grouped by their first recorded source. It is not influence: an opportunity sourced by an SDR can still have been influenced by marketing, and that is reported separately.
How much pipeline should marketing source?
It depends on the go-to-market model, and there is no published benchmark that fits every company. Kellogg’s example for a roughly $50M enterprise SaaS company:
| Source | Kellogg’s example share of pipeline | Note from the same post |
|---|---|---|
| Marketing (inbound) | 60% | Each share plus or minus 10 points |
| SDR outbound | 10% | Makes most sense in a named-account model |
| Partners (alliances) | 20% | Often under 20% in practice |
| Sales outbound | 10% | Only makes sense for named-account territories |
Source: Dave Kellogg, The Four Sources of Pipeline and The Balance Across Them, Kellblog, October 21, 2021. He adds that the mix can vary widely. In a later post on board-level questions on the marketing budget (December 2, 2024), he lists pipeline generation targets by source by quarter among the things a board should ask for.
Bring your 2027 target. In 30 minutes we map the pipeline gap, the first 90 days and what to fix before January.
Why do win rates by source change the targets?
Because pipeline is not bookings. Partner-sourced and sales-sourced opportunities often close at different rates from inbound ones. If you split pipeline by a fixed percentage, the source with the lowest win rate quietly carries more of the bookings risk. Split the bookings target first, then divide by each source’s own win rate from your CRM.
Worked example: $24M of new bookings across four sources
This is a worked example with stated assumptions, not a benchmark or a client result. The 2027 new-business target is $24M and the average deal is $60,000. The bookings split and the win rates by source are assumptions; take yours from the CRM.
| Source | Share of bookings | Bookings | Win rate (assumption) | Pipeline target | Share of pipeline | Qualified opportunities |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marketing | 40% | $9.6M | 22% | $43.6M | 45% | 727 |
| SDR outbound | 15% | $3.6M | 18% | $20.0M | 21% | 333 |
| Sales outbound | 20% | $4.8M | 30% | $16.0M | 17% | 267 |
| Partners | 25% | $6.0M | 35% | $17.1M | 18% | 286 |
| Total | 100% | $24.0M | 25% blended | $96.8M | 100% | 1,613 |
Marketing carries 40% of bookings but 45% of pipeline, because its opportunities close at a lower rate in this example. Partners carry 25% of bookings on 18% of pipeline. That is the conversation to have with the CRO before the numbers go to the board: the shares of pipeline follow from the shares of bookings and the win rates, not the other way round.
How do you set the targets by quarter?
Spread each source’s opportunities across the quarters in which they must be created, allowing for your sales cycle. In the same example, with creation weighted slightly toward the second half:
| Source | Q1 2027 | Q2 2027 | Q3 2027 | Q4 2027 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marketing | 160 | 182 | 189 | 196 | 727 |
| SDR outbound | 73 | 83 | 87 | 90 | 333 |
| Sales outbound | 59 | 67 | 69 | 72 | 267 |
| Partners | 63 | 71 | 74 | 78 | 286 |
| Total | 355 | 403 | 419 | 436 | 1,613 |
Kellogg recommends goals as counts of opportunities rather than percentages, and over-allocating when a source is new: his example targets 110 opportunities when 100 are needed, with the new source carrying the extra. If partners are a new program in 2027, plan their 286 opportunities, and set the plan total about 10% above 1,613 so a slow start does not miss the year.
How do you make pipeline by source hold up in review?
- One definition of source, written down: the first recorded source on the opportunity, set at creation and not overwritten.
- A service level agreement between marketing and sales on acceptance, follow-up and recycling, so sourced opportunities are worked the same way.
- Win rates and deal size by source from the CRM for the last four quarters, refreshed each quarter.
- A win-touch review each quarter: Kellogg suggests a neutral party, such as sales operations, reviews the full touch history of representative won deals.
- Influence reported next to source, so marketing’s effect on SDR, sales and partner opportunities is visible without double counting.
Our marketing and sales pipeline SLA template covers acceptance, follow-up and recycling terms you can adopt as written.
The pipeline coverage math article shows how much total pipeline the target needs before you split it by source.
How to present your 2027 marketing plan to the board shows where pipeline by source sits in the deck.
The 2027 B2B marketing planning hub lists every other planning step, with the calculators for each.
Frequently asked questions
How much pipeline should marketing source versus sales?
It depends on the go-to-market model. Dave Kellogg’s example for a roughly $50M enterprise SaaS company was about 60% marketing, 10% SDR outbound, 20% partners and 10% sales outbound, each plus or minus 10 points. Set yours from bookings by source and each source’s win rate, and agree it with the CRO.
Should pipeline targets by source be percentages or numbers?
Numbers of qualified opportunities per quarter. Kellogg recommends counts rather than percentages, and over-allocating new sources so a shortfall there does not miss the plan.
What counts as marketing-sourced pipeline?
Qualified opportunities whose first recorded source is a marketing program. Opportunities that SDRs, sales or partners sourced but marketing touched are influenced, not sourced, and are reported separately.
How do I set pipeline targets for SDRs and partners?
The same way as for marketing: split the bookings target, divide by that source’s win rate for pipeline, divide by deal size for opportunities, then spread by quarter allowing for the sales cycle. Give each source an owner.
Sources
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