What does a 10 percent cut, or a 10 percent increase, do to your 2027 pipeline?
Enter your 2027 program budget, the cut and grow percentages finance is considering, your pipeline target and deal size. Then mark each budget line as cut first, cut second or protected, with its cost per qualified opportunity, the most it can lose and the room it has to grow. The simulator shows the opportunities, pipeline and coverage of the target in each scenario, and the pipeline a cut would cost.
Use the bands your finance team uses. Minus 10 is the common planning case.
New-business target divided by win rate, times marketing’s share. The pipeline gap calculator works it out.
Your budget lines and the cut order
The starting lines are example assumptions for a mid-market or enterprise B2B company, not benchmarks. Set each line’s share of the budget, its cost per qualified opportunity from your CRM, whether it is cut first, cut second or protected, the most it can be cut and how much more it could absorb if the budget grows.
How it works: the cut comes out of the cut-first lines, the most expensive per opportunity first, then the cut-second lines, never beyond each line’s maximum. Growth goes to the lines with the lowest cost per opportunity that still have room. Removed and added dollars count at the marginal cost (your average cost plus the premium), because the last dollars in a line buy the least. Opportunities are full-year figures; the channel planner adds the lag before each channel produces.
A 10% cut costs about $1.7M of pipeline; 10% more adds about $4.0M
On a $3.0M program budget the flat plan creates about 636 qualified opportunities (95% of the pipeline target). The minus 10% scenario loses about 29 and the plus 10% scenario adds about 66.
Figures stay in your browser unless you ask us to send the full plan.
How it works
The flat plan
Each line’s budget divided by its cost per qualified opportunity gives the opportunities it creates. Times deal size, that is pipeline; divided by the target, coverage.
The cut, in the agreed order
The cut comes out of cut-first lines, the most expensive per opportunity first, then cut-second lines, up to each line’s maximum. Protected lines, such as measurement and contracted platforms, are not touched.
The increase, where it works hardest
New money goes to the lines with the lowest cost per opportunity that still have room, such as search campaigns losing impression share to budget.
Marginal, not average, cost
The last dollars in a line and the next dollars added to it buy fewer opportunities than the average. The marginal premium applies that, so the pipeline cost of a cut is not understated.
Questions about this tool
How do I plan a marketing budget when the number is not final?
Plan three versions, such as minus 10 percent, flat and plus 10 percent, and agree with finance in advance what is cut first, what is protected and what triggers the release of extra money. The simulator puts a pipeline figure on each version.
What should be protected in a marketing budget cut?
Measurement and CRM data, contracted platforms you cannot exit mid-year, and the demand capture lines with the lowest cost per qualified opportunity, usually branded and high-intent search. Test lanes and the lines with the weakest pipeline evidence go first.
Where do the default figures come from?
They are example assumptions for a mid-market or enterprise B2B company, chosen to show the method. They are not benchmarks. Replace each cost per opportunity with your own CRM figure: program spend by line divided by the qualified opportunities sales accepted over the last four quarters.
What is the marginal premium?
How much more the last or next dollars in a line cost per opportunity than the line’s average. A 30 percent premium means the dollars you cut were buying opportunities at 1.3 times the average cost. If you have run a marginal dollar test, use its result.
Is my data stored?
No. The figures stay in your browser unless you ask for the full scenario plan by email.
Turn your numbers into a plan
Two free guides that pick up where this tool stops. Each opens on the page, and we email you the PDF. See all guides and checklists
