How long does your incrementality test need to run?

In short

Enter the weekly conversions in the markets or audience you will test, the share you will hold out with no ads, the lift you expect from the channel, and your confidence and power. The planner returns the weeks the test needs, the spend held back, and the smallest lift the design can detect.

Last updated

%
%
$
Confidence
Power
Test duration
22 weeks
Too slow for this design
Spend held back
$99K
Detectable lift in 8 weeks
34%
Your full report

This test needs a bigger holdout or a bolder hypothesis

To detect a 20% lift with 30% held out, at 90% confidence and 80% power.

The full report includes

  • Duration, holdout size and spend held back
  • Step-by-step test design
  • Whether this design is worth running

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The method

How it works

  1. Two groups

    The exposed group keeps advertising; the holdout gets none. Conversions per week are compared between them.

  2. Count-based test

    We treat weekly conversions as counts and size the test on the ratio between groups, a standard approach for low-volume B2B outcomes.

  3. Duration

    Weeks needed for the difference to be detectable at your confidence and power.

  4. Cost of learning

    Spend held back in the holdout over the test, which is the price of a clean answer.

FAQ

Questions about this tool

Related: A/B test calculator, Attribution models simulator.

What is incrementality testing?

An experiment that compares people or markets that see advertising with comparable ones that do not, to measure the conversions the ads actually caused rather than those they were credited with.

How is it different from media mix modeling?

Media mix modeling estimates each channel’s contribution statistically from historical data across channels. Incrementality tests measure one channel directly with a controlled holdout. Tests are often used to calibrate a model.

What should a B2B test measure?

Qualified opportunities or sales-accepted leads, if volume allows. If they are too rare, use a leading indicator that correlates with pipeline, and state that limit when you report.

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Hojabr Sattari
Hojabr SattariFounder and Director of Revenue Growth Strategy. Reads every request.

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